Taxonomy, resource potential, cost trajectories, and the case for and against next-generation geothermal.
Research institute · investor
True North Institute · June 2026 · PDF, 8MB
The most complete single document on the sector as it stands, and the source of the EGS / GGS / ACL / SHR taxonomy used throughout this site. Long at 147 pages, but the structure makes it navigable.
True North Institute also invests in the sector it writes about. It is a named participant in Hephae Energy Technology's $17.8M Series A, announced July 2026, and Hephae is profiled on our market map. We have found no position disclosed in the whitepaper itself.
That does not make the research unreliable, and we lean on it more heavily than on any other single document. It does mean you should read it the way you would read any interested party, and it is why claims that rest on this whitepaper alone are labelled as such rather than presented as settled.
International Energy Agency · December 2024
The report that moved geothermal into mainstream energy analysis: up to 800 GW deployable worldwide, and up to 15% of global electricity demand growth to 2050. Covers heat as well as power, so read with the scope difference in mind. The executive summary carries most of the argument.
Rhodium Group · March 2025 · PDF
Models behind-the-meter geothermal against hyperscale data-center growth and finds 55–64% of it could be served economically, or 15–17 GW. The most rigorous version of the argument this site's home page is built on. Supported by Project InnerSpace, which funds geothermal.
International Energy Agency · commentary
Short, and the quickest read on the list. Useful as a current check on capital flows against the longer 2024 report, and on which policy levers the IEA thinks actually matter.
U.S. Department of Energy · March 2024 · PDF
The oldest item here and still the clearest articulation of what commercial scale-up requires: ~90 GW by 2050, and roughly $4.5B to finance the first ten first-of-a-kind projects. Read it as the baseline that later reports revise.
Clean Air Task Force · February 2025
The best plain-language entry point to superhot rock, the highest-ceiling and least proven branch of the sector. CATF advocates for SHR, so read it for the technical explanation rather than the odds.
Ongoing · data resource
Not a report but a global subsurface resource map, and the dataset behind both the IEA's geothermal work and the Rhodium data-center analysis above. Worth knowing that a single nonprofit, which is also the largest nonprofit funder of geothermal in the world, supplies the underlying data for several of the headline numbers in circulation.